Reasonable Man

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Everything posted by Reasonable Man

  1. A Recovery continues

    OK I'll play your game. There are 28 member states not 27. Each member state pays about 1% GNI in contributions. We don't take the total and divide it by 28 so everyone pays an equal cash amount. The U.K. With its rebate gives the lowest proportion of GNI - £12.9B in cash terms. This is fourth highest in cash terms. Germany pays the most in cash terms, more than the total of the lowest 19 contributors. So Malta pays about €66,000,000. Germany pays about €26,000,000,000. All of those 28 amounts added together = the total budget.
  2. Judges rule on Brexit

    Thank you Cheese for your typically erudite post that makes my point more understandable for some. Thank you also HMS for answering the question and so adding the discussion - although it was asked of Zulu as it is he who is insisting that everyone who voted to leave will only vote for candidates who support the leave campaign. HMS is one who would vote on the single issue - and explains this as accepting five years of pain with an MP he didn't want would lead to the greater good of leaving the EU. Cheese shows the opposite stance with the broader issues deciding on his vote. I guess this shows that the 17.5 million people will not necessarily vote for Brexit candidates, nor will the 16.2 million only vote for pro EU ones.
  3. Judges rule on Brexit

    I didn't invent the BNP or votes for it. There has been BNP candidates and people have voted for them. Can you give a straight answer to a straight question? I believe you won't and deflect in your usual way, but here goes. Just imagine a general election is called and in your constituency there is no UKIP candidate. All but one of the candidates are pro European, the only candidate who will vote to leave/trigger Article 50 is from the BNP. DO YOU VOTE FOR THE BNP CANDIDATE? YES or NO.
  4. A Recovery continues

    Wow. This post shows such lack of understanding I don't know where to begin - or are you just trolling? 5 million missing out of 117 billion? I don't know where you get the 5M from but that's 0.004% - that can be accounted for by rounding.
  5. Judges rule on Brexit

    Does that mean that only the liberal left voted to remain in the EU and for Clinton to be President?
  6. A Recovery continues

    How can it be unbelievable. All the figures are publicly available - unless you such a conspiracy theorist that you think all the published numbers about everything is wrong. EU budget for 2015 = €145 billion = £122 billion at today's exchange rate. NHS net expenditure was £117.229 billion in 2015/16. So actually EU budget is slightly more now but back when the exchange rate was different it was less. Just shows that in real terms membership of the EU isn't that expensive.
  7. Judges rule on Brexit

    I did. If I had Conservative, Labour, Lib Dem, Green and Independent candidates standing in my area all of whom declared their pro EU stance with a BNP candidate being the only one who would vote for Brexit. Someone is suggesting that every Brexiteer in the constituency will vote BNP in a general election. My point is EU membership is not the only show in town in a general election and people will vote on a whole range of issues.
  8. A Recovery continues

    It has been explained but you don't want to know about anything that doesn't fit with your agenda. The Full Facts link by BR puts it succinctly - the accounts have been signed off for the last 9 years. There are some errors, but it would be suspicious if every penny of a multi billion Euro budget was accounted for and spent exactly according to the rules. When I looked previously I found that applying the same rules to the UK budget showed more money was 'missing' from the Westminster coffers than the Brussels ones. And the 'absolute corrupt' phrase is rather wearing and absolutely inaccurate. If the EU was 'absolutely' corrupt then it wouldn't be <4% of the money misspent, it would be 100% of the budget stolen. And every MEP, including Farage and the other UKIP members all 'absolutely' corruptly taking their share.
  9. Judges rule on Brexit

    I hope that my MP votes in Parliament on this, and all other matters the way he believes is best for the country. That's what I want from my MP. I cannot imagine that someone would vote in a general election for the candidate who agreed with them on one single issue. I would read the manifestos and about the values and beliefs of the individuals. Imagine having several candidates who believe remaining in the EU is the best option with the only candidate wanting to leave being from the BNP. Does anyone really think that the BNP would get in just because of the EU vote?
  10. A Recovery continues

    I don't see the point of the last post. You start talking about pure conjecture, no one can know the future, the experts get it wrong, the crystal ball hasn't been invented yet. Then quote John Brennan as though he is an expert. By your own argument he can't know the future, he hasn't got a crystal ball, his opinion is pure conjecture and he only has a 2% chance of being right. Trump may become the best President the USA ever had.
  11. A Recovery continues

    Well said Z; and I owe myself another mince pie. Of course the key question is will the rest of the world want to trade with us? And if they do will it be on as favourable terms as we currently have within the EU?
  12. A Recovery continues

    This is just positioning before the main event. Article 50 and actual Brexit will slam us all economically. And that will probably take beyond my lifetime to recover from. The Office for Budget Responsibility has calculated that the lower migration, slower productivity growth and higher inflation likely to be caused by Brexit will cost us £59bn from the public finances over the next five years. The Institute for Fiscal Studies says Brexit would hit productivity and wage growth, and the falling pound would drive up inflation. Brexit would cause the biggest pay squeeze in Britain for 70 years – more than a decade without real earnings growth. A report by the Centre for Economics and Business Research found that every major wealth-creating sector would be hit if the UK left the single market. So I don't know where the NHS will get its extra £350M a week from.
  13. Judges rule on Brexit

    I'll just accept that some are unconsciously bias to unconscious bias and move on.
  14. Judges rule on Brexit

    That is not a bias. That is a rational and conscious fear or acknowledgment of danger based on learning and experience. If you don't understand something it is better to belittle and pour scorn on it. Maybe an unconscious bias against academics? Of course you will say that your learning and experience has shown you that all academics are rubbish, like you say all politicians are corrupt, all EU supporters are fools, all surveys are not worth the paper they are written on ... Indeed anyone not in agreement with you gets put in a box and ridiculed in some way.
  15. Judges rule on Brexit

    It does apply to everyone and every opinion. If you do not have unconscious bias then you are not human. ERNIE has no unconscious bias because it is a machine.
  16. Judges rule on Brexit

    If you knew about it then it wouldn't be unconscious. We all have unconscious bias - it is a natural human condition.
  17. Judges rule on Brexit

    those who understand conscious and unconscious bias.
  18. Judges rule on Brexit

    Let us be honest. Only 38% of the electorate and 27% of the population of the U.K. voted to leave. So while 17.5 million voted to leave 46.8 million didn't.
  19. Judges rule on Brexit

    This Remainer knew exactly what the facts were. Vote remain for more of the same or vote to leave for uncertainty and a vain hope that it would be better. For me 'the same' wasn't too bad and the uncertainty too uncertain. As for the German car manufacturers wanting the UK market, I'm sure they do but they won't go bust without us but they can't make their trade deals with us, nor can Germany. They are part of the EU so it will have to be a UK - EU deal. Spain, Italy, Belgium etc will be part of the negotiations and won't just roll over for good deals for those companies. Spain will be after equally good deals for Seat, Italy for Fiat etc.
  20. Judges rule on Brexit

    So I'm just being like the fortune telling Brexiteers only I predict an economic downturn rather than the land of milk and honey where the rest of the world elbows each other out of the way fighting to hand the UK the best deals they can offer us.
  21. Judges rule on Brexit

    During the campaign I used to get irritated at how the Brexiteers used this figure when it never cost us that much. Now it's no longer a debating issue I, too, find it hilarious that anyone thinks we will ever see any of that money in real terms. Sure we won't have to write that cheque but financial cost of everything else will swallow that up, and then some.
  22. Judges rule on Brexit

    I don't know it because none of us knows what Brexit will look like, not even you. This is the point that many of us are making. You who voted to leave did not know what you were voting for. I honestly believe that some elements of what I put will be part of the deal. Everyone has a view of what they think it may be but no one knows and those who voted to leave either don't care what it mean for the country or just 'hope' that it will be better. And as Rich Hall said about Trump voters, 'hope falls somewhere between good intent and a rain dance.'
  23. Judges rule on Brexit

    What will those who voted to leave say though when the best deal for Brexit is struck and we are left with something that looks very much like we have at the moment? We negotiate free movement of goods and services with the EU - so that means we have to comply with their rules and regulations on safety standards, procurement etc. To have that we keep the free movement of people to and from the EU. Hand in hand with such a trade agreement we agree to retain the agriculture and fishing policies we currently have. We wish to retain the benefits of Schengen, Europol, EAW so our criminal laws must align with European ones. We remain inextricably linked militarily through NATO and the UN. The significant changes are - it no longer costs us £350M a week gross £280M net. We get a huge reduction on full membership cost to only £250M a week gross (and net, because we get no rebate or payments as we are not full members). We have no representation at the Parliament or on any of the committees so have no influence over spending, legislation, regulations, directives etc. I believe I will be hearing, 'THAT'S NOT WHAT I VOTED FOR. VOTED TO LEAVE.'
  24. Facebook & other social media

    You can't necessarily avoid being 'out there' even without having a social media account. People who know me and have taken photos of me at events have tagged it to two other people with the same name as me who live in the same area. Even though I have no such account photos of me can be found linked to my name. I've also wondered about the conversations those 'Reasonable Mans' have had with their nearest and dearest about why they were at those events when they claimed to be elsewhere [emoji1][emoji51][emoji13] Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
  25. Judges rule on Brexit

    Is that because, by deduction, the other two must have been Brexiteers? Most impartial to have a panel of judges making a ruling on how we leave the EU being weighted towards leaving. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk